Fulham vs Chelsea Prediction: Premier League Preview
Two coaches who led Real Madrid last season go head-to-head in a west London derby. We look ahead to thisPremier League match at Craven Cottage with our Fulham vs Chelsea prediction and preview.
Fulham vs Chelsea : The Key Stats
- The Opta supercomputer has Chelsea as the favourites for this match with a win probability of 51.0% compared to Fulham’s 25.7%.
- Chelsea have failed to win their opening game of the Premier League season in each of the last three campaigns (D2 L1). They last went four without a win between 1995-96 and 1998-99.
- This will be the fourth time Fulham have started a Premier League season with a London derby – they lost each of the previous three (two versus Arsenal, one against Crystal Palace).
New eras dawn for both Fulham and Chelsea when they go head-to-head in their opening game of the Premier League season at Craven Cottage on Monday.
Former interim Real Madrid boss Álvaro Arbeloa took over at Fulham after Marco Silva ended his impressive five-year stay with the club in favour of a switch to Benfica, who were without a manager after José Mourinho returned to the Bernabéu to replace Arbeloa.
Chelsea, meanwhile, turned to the man Arbeloa succeeded at Madrid last season, Xabi Alonso, who takes over the Blues after their dismal season ended with a 10th-place finish – far below expectations in the wake of their Club World Cup success last year.
Alonso will become the 27th manager to take charge of at least one Premier League game with Chelsea, overtaking Tottenham (26) as the most for any club (counting joint-managers as one).
Recent history has not been kind to new Chelsea bosses either, with just two of their last eight coaches winning their first league game in charge: Graham Potter versus Crystal Palace in October 2022 and Liam Rosenior against Brentford in January 2026.
Alonso will be hopeful of avoiding that fate and instead breathe new life into a side that won just seven points from the start of March last season – the fewest of any side not to be relegated – losing eight of their 11 Premier League games.
That ambition will be helped by the 11 new arrivals at Stamford Bridge, including a big-money move for Morgan Rogers as well as the addition of experienced heads in Jordan Henderson and Danny Welbeck.
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There may, therefore, still be some turbulence at the club, with the squad now sitting at around 40 senior players. And with no European football, it has been reported that as many as 12 could be moved on before the transfer window closes.
Alonso told his pre-match news conference there were no issues with the squad size and added: “Each game is going to be challenging. We are going to be improving game by game.
“I’m sure that the team that started the Premier League and the one that’s in December, even in November, will be better because everything takes time. It’s a process, but we feel that we can have a good start and that’s so important.”
Fulham finished level on points with Chelsea last season and made quick use of Arbeloa’s Madrid connections, bringing in striker Gonzalo García and attacking midfielder César Palacios.
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There may be some uneasiness for fans about relying on untested talents, particularly with two key components of the squad under Silva – Raúl Jiménez and Harry Wilson – departing in the off-season.
García and Palacios will be doubly keen to hit the ground running so they can help Fulham maintain their impressive home form from the second half of last season. In 2026, only Manchester United (8) have won more Premier League home games than Fulham (6), with the Cottagers winning six of their last nine at Craven Cottage (L3).
They may not have to contend with Welbeck, though, as the veteran striker has a minor injury. Should he be declared fit, though, 35-year-old Welbeck will join Jermain Defoe as the second striker to appear in 19 separate Premier League seasons.
Wesley Fofana is unavailable following his red card against Sunderland on the final day of last season, while injuries have hampered Henderson and fellow new arrival Emmanuel Emegha during pre-season.
Fulham are without Tom Cairney as he recovers from knee surgery, while Joachim Andersen is still serving a ban after seeing red against Bournemouth on 9 May.
Fulham vs Chelsea Head-to-Head
Fulham ran out 2-1 winners in the most recent encounter between the teams, with Jiménez and Wilson scoring after Marc Cucurella’s first-half dismissal.
If Fulham manage to pull off another victory, it will be the first time they have won consecutive games in all competitions against their west-London rivals since a run of three between April 1977 and October 1979.
Fulham have won their opening game in just one of their last six Premier League seasons, though – a 1-0 victory at Everton in the 2023-24 campaign.
Chelsea’s opening-day form is poor, too. They have failed to win their first match in each of the last three seasons (D2 L1), putting them in danger of going four in a row for the first time since 1998-99.
Fulham vs Chelsea Prediction
There are so many unknowns for both teams going into this game. Not only will it be the first time two former Premier League teammates will make their managerial bow in the competition against one another, but they will also be the 10th and 11th coaching debutants of the matchday – a new record if you exclude the 1992-93 season.
However, Chelsea have the more experienced manager and a greater wealth of talent at their disposal, so it is unsurprising that they have a win probability of 51.0%.
Fulham cannot be written off, though, having come out on top in 25.7% of the Opta supercomputer‘s 10,000 pre-match simulations.
Fulham vs Chelsea Predicted Lineups
Fulham : Bernd Leno; Antonee Robinson, Calvin Bassey, Jorge Cuenca, Timothy Castagne; Alex Iwobi, Sander Berge; César Palacios, Josh King, Oscar Bobb; Gonzalo García.
Head coach: Álvaro Arbeloa
Chelsea : Robert Sánchez; Reece James, Maxence Lacroix, Levi Colwill, Marco Palestra; Enzo Fernández, Moisés Caicedo; Pedro Neto, Cole Palmer, Morgan Rogers; Joao Pedro.
Head coach: Xabi Alonso
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world, and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Monday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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